US support package can’t come soon enough 

Yesterday at around midday a loud explosion rang out across Dnipro city. Sitting in my flat, my heart sank somewhat, given the train station had been hit just the day before, killing three civilians. As I moved away from the window towards the bathroom, I could see the plume of smoke rising up from towards Dnipro airport- the same airport I used to fly to and from regularly prior to 2022. 

The sirens sounded up. I’m not sure whether they’d been activated prior to the strike, but if they were, we’re talking seconds, not minutes.  

Subsequent scouring of Russian propaganda channels eventually showed the strike in detail. What appears to be a lone Ukrainian MiG-29 sitting on the tarmac is filmed from the sky with a maintenance crew working around it.  A powerful explosion metres away leaves the plane in flames and the fate of the ground crew unknown. The same channel claims Russian forces have destroyed four MiG-29s in the last 3 days alone, as well as an S-300 air defence system, also in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 

Ukraine doesn’t have many planes to lose, so losing another, let alone four, is a bitter blow. But yesterday’s strike says something more than just the loss of an aircraft. That the sirens seem to be delivering less and less warning (read Dan Hooton’s blog here) suggests new vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s air defence; perhaps new weapons on the Russian side, perhaps loss of radar systems on the Ukrainian side, perhaps both. But no longer are missiles being intercepted with the same success as 6 months ago.  

Ukrainian MiG-29 targeted at Dnipro Airport 

Even more tellingly, that the strike was filmed so clearly from above demonstrates that Russian ISTAR* assets are now able to penetrate Ukrainian territory with virtual impunity. (Connected or not, at least one damaged Patriot system was photographed being shipped to the US this week).  The release of footage of the strike into the public domain suggests Russia isn’t even playing that card close to its chest: the propaganda capital is worth more than the perceived risk of letting Ukraine know its new capabilities. Indeed, the Rybar Telegram channel was quick to gloat about getting UAVs over Dnipro, up to 120km from Russian lines- “a new record”. 

The issue of Russia’s creeping frontier of air superiority is not limited to Dnipro. We released a Spot Report earlier this week about what this means for Kharkiv currently, and implications for the Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, too.  

It is clear then, that the US House’s approval last night of the $61bn aid package is crucial, particularly for air defence, as is Europe’s pledge this week of up to seven Patriot systems. Long range surface- surface missiles, such as ATACMS, will also play a role, pushing Russian air bases further to the rear and potentially making Russian jets more vulnerable as they are forced to spend longer in the air. While Storm Shadows/SCALP are capable, they require air launching and Ukraine doesn’t have many planes left, much less to lose. Meanwhile, Germany is still hesitating to hand over its Taurus system. The impact (and indeed the delivery!) of F-16s is yet to be seen. Either way, given the darkening skies over Dnipro, Kharkiv and elsewhere in Ukraine over the past few weeks, it’s clear that this aid package may only just be in the nick of time. 

A damaged Patriot system being delivered to the US


*Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance

A Trip To Ukraine

This was my third trip to Ukraine for a week of meetings with clients and our new Ukrainian developers we are engaging for a digitisation project -more on that later.

This was my third trip to Ukraine for a week of meetings with clients and our new Ukrainian developers we are engaging for a digitisation project -more on that later. Charlie, our Country Manager, came up from Dnipro and it was a good chance to spend time together over and above our regular video calls.

Following my now well-established pattern, I flew to Poland in advance of the long train journey to Kyiv. I had a little downtime between plane and train, so explored Rzeszow and Przemysl. It was nice to pay some time and attention to Poland rather than just treating it as a transit point. It has much to offer and I continued my reconnaissance of training locations for clients who may wish to carry our HEAT before they get into theatre.

Whilst the train is a reliable and safe way to travel, it does bring home the vast scale of the country.

I was on the overnight InterCity train with a reclining seat as opposed to the sleeper compartment, which is some ways is better as you have more freedom of movement but it does mean less sleep. There were no issues with crossing the border and I was stamped in with no questions asked and on my way to Kyiv. This nine-hour duration does sort the wheat from the chaff; you can’t just jump on a plane for a hop into country, it takes time and effort to plan.  Go if you have a decent business reason but don’t treat the place like a stop to be visited on a whim or corporate junket.

Arriving in Kyiv

Central Kyiv

On arrival at Kyiv Passazhirskyi, I jumped in a taxi and made my way to the serviced apartments we were using for the week. A little cheaper than the branded hotels and with more space and facilities, it gives you a nice alternative to a hotel. I had set my Air Alert! App to Kyiv and no sooner had I dumped my bags in the room, it dutifully began its familiar wail to welcome me to the city.  Having visited a few times before, we had changed our internal SOP’s; deciding to go to the shelter based on a secondary indication an attack was inbound, rather than acting on the siren alone. We did this because responding to every single siren over the course of a week was time intensive and disruptive, and in a lower risk area such as Kyiv - with its air defences and functioning emergency services- this was acceptable. Secondary indications would include hearing air defences or ordinance, or reports from reliable Telegram channels that a missile, drone or aircraft was inbound. With that in mind, I thought, relax, let’s check the phone and make an assessment.

Air Raid Sirens

What I wasn’t prepared for was less than 10 seconds after the sirens sounded, I heard the air defence systems launching and explosions quickly after. Ok, so this was the indication I was looking for and I made my way to the shelter, which in this case meant a short walk around the corner to end up in a basement covered in the most peculiar artwork. As I walked along the pavement, what struck me was that most people were taking cover under arches or coming in off the street into buildings. People were taking this seriously and this was different to the previous visits, where if I am honest, most of the local population paid lip service to the sirens. It was generally visitors to the city who went to the shelters. There was also a slightly different feel to the moment; the few faces I saw looked weary and worn, more haggard. Obviously two years of constant barrage of indirect fire is taking its toll. Having said that, throughout the trip, everyone I met remained determined and defiant. However, there was a sense that Ukrainians are feeling bereft of support, with the wavering of international military aid, particularly the log jam in Congressional funding. There was a weariness but also a grim determination in their thoughts and deeds that they will get through this regardless of who supports them and to what extent. “If no one else helps us, we will fight to the end”, would sum up my view. 

Anyway, back to the shelter. As I sat amongst the basement’s artwork I reflected on the lack of time between the siren and the air defence activation. I would have been expecting at least 5 to 10 mins warning on previous visits, so 10 seconds was a hell of a difference. I wondered what had caused this.  It meant the weapons were being used in a way that gave less notice to the air defence systems, or the systems themselves had some sort of weakness that was being exploited. Or a mixture of both. Either way, we would need to reassess actions-on for us and our clients. It was a timely reminder that we are in a war zone, and no matter how nice and normal Kyiv can seem most of the time, the dangers of conflict are very real and complacency must be guarded against at all times. As it turned out, two Zircon hypersonic missiles were fired and intercepted over Kyiv, unfortunately with some damage and injury. This explained the shortened reaction time for the air defence systems had but it was heartening to see they can still hit their targets against this supposedly unstoppable missile.

I won’t come back to the air raids again, but just to say there was a definite uptick in attacks during the week, largely targeting the energy infrastructure. You can read our Spot Report on this here, which goes into far more detail. One postscript: a missile grazed Polish airspace this week, a small but significant event that will create an escalation within the NATO community if allowed to develop and one to watch. Poland scrambled fighters during last night’s attack, a much more robust response to that of Monday’s incursion.

Our In Country Team

Once the alert had finished, I met with Charlie who arrived from our office in Dnipro and we headed out for an afternoon of meetings, most with existing and new clients who we are providing HEAT training for. In the year we have been in country, we weren’t quite sure which of our services would be most in demand, but to date, it is clearly these types of training courses for the NGO community. We have built a purely Ukrainian training team delivering a contextualised course centred on the threats and environment, which we are very proud of. This has taken a lot of time and effort but we are really pleased with progress and continue to play our part in helping those most at risk stay safe and manage themselves in the best way possible. That evening, we met with Vadym, our Regional Security Advisor who is responsible for our alerting and reporting on a day to day basis.

Spearfish HEAT Training Video

As we chatted over dinner, the complications of mobilisation and the latest reading of the bill through the Ukrainian parliament dominated our discussion. The reality of this legislation really does hit home when you speak with someone who is eligible for call up.  Yes, there are plenty of people fighting on the front line and many have made the ultimate sacrifice. Everyone needs to do their bit, but when it is people you have got to know quite well, and like and respect, it is only natural to be extremely worried for them. Men are often mobilised to the front line for extended periods of time in extremely tough conditions that most of us can only imagine. One of our team is facing the tough prospect of his son volunteering for military service, and hearing him say as a father, “if you go, I will go with you, son” really does make you quite emotional. I gave thanks for the peace I take for granted as a resident of the UK and tried to imagine how our population would cope if placed in a similar situation. My conclusions were not great.

The next day, we met with our software developers who are embarking on a six month digitisation project with us. This might seem a strange choice, to pick a company based in a war zone but the Ukrainian software sector is incredible. Pre-invasion, it was the global leader for gaming and it vibrant tech sector has been catapulted into the vanguard of the war effort with the advances they have made in drone and electronic warfare. Not only are they developing cutting edge solutions, their perspective on what we do at Spearfish has been honed and sharpened by personal experience, so what better choice of partner for us to make. We will be speaking more about this project in coming months, currently titled DOCC2.0 (yes, this is due a new name). In short, a platform built around our consulting team and our clients to enhance our advisory and support services to those in the field in high-risk environments. More to follow.

Visiting Kyiv’s Boryspil Airport

The week continued along similar lines, but as we neared its conclusion a highlight presented itself. We were invited to meet the Director General of Kyiv Boryspil International Airport, Charlie’s former colleague in Donetsk, and all-round great guy, Oleksiy Dubrevskyy   We weren’t quite sure what to expect, as the airport has been closed for over two years. What would greet us, a couple of caretakers with mops and buckets? We arrived at the security checkpoint and were picked up by an escort vehicle to the main terminal where we were greeted by the airport’s senior management team.  We were given a tour of the airport, which used to handle over 15m passengers a year, but now lies dormant. It felt like a scene from a zombie apocalypse film. Following the tour, we were given an hour’s presentation on the current operations of the airport.

As it turns out, the team are incredibly busy maintaining the airport as a viable national asset. A little like my Landover Defender, an airport is not an asset you can simply mothball and then restart as and when it is needed. Buildings need to remain heated and air conditioned, air electrical control systems need to be maintained and updated, runways need to be kept clear and operational, people need to remain employed, motivated and most importantly trained and toilets need to be flushed (this is a full time job for one lucky person, nearly a thousand lavatories are operated each day, to prevent air locks and bacterial build up- I kid you not).

Last but by no means least, the safety case and security assessment of the facility and its ability to mitigate all risks to an acceptable level need to be monitored and updated on a continual basis. The ultimate aim is to be able to operate the airport safely, even in wartime, should the political decision to open the airport be made. Without going into the incredible complexity that was described to us as to how such a decision would be made and the security plans required to do so (we weren’t told that part), what was clear was the incredible job Oleksiy and his team have done and continue to do to ensure the site can reopen at short notice.

The Spearfish team meeting the Director General of Kyiv Boryspil International Airport and his team

They are ready, and looking at the high levels of work that has been carried out, and the sparkling state of the facilities, it is clear they mean business and are keen to get back into action. The alarming note was of funding. Although state owned, the airport supports itself financially, and all of this work has been self-financed. What is approaching is the end of their pre-existing reserves, and not to put too fine a point on it, if the international community wants to maintain this critical national asset, some serious funding needs to be put in place soon. Hearing how management have been working without pay to ensure other team members receive salaries emphasised the incredible dedication of the team. We parted in awe of the work that had been taking place in this deserted location, quietly, without fuss and out of the spotlight and we wish Oleksiy and his team every success in attaining their goals to achieve this.

That marked the end of this trip, and I made my way back to the station ruminating on what having air travel back online for the country would mean.  It would be a game-changer for Ukraine’s reconstruction. I boarded the train to Poland, already planning and looking forward to my next trip to this incredible country.

Read our latest Ukraine Spot Report and access real-time risk alerts through our online DOCC  platform here. 

A Day in the life: An insight into a working Abuja today

Our accounts assistant in Abuja, Aisha Gekpe, has written an insightful piece on working life in abuja

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Every morning in Abuja, Nigeria is very peaceful and serene, seeing as it is the city capital. I wake up at dawn by 5:45am for another typical day of work as an accountant at Spear-fish West Africa. I brew a pot of rich Nigerian coffee and grab a simple breakfast of bread and eggs, the familiar flavours comforting me as I gather my belongings and prepare to face the challenges of another day.

 Navigating the chaotic streets of Abuja, I board a crowded, tattered looking bus, joining the throngs of commuters making their way to work, while others make it through by tricycles and walking. The journey is long because of the traffic congestion, rowdiness of the taxis that never follow the traffic regulations and thugs that try to scam and extort people off transportation worthiness documentation, but I remain steadfast, already thinking about the day ahead. As the bus lurches forward on relatively good roads that take me through the vibrant chaos of the city, the bustling markets, petrol queues, and colourful storefronts as a testament to Nigerian's resilience and spirit. Arriving at my office in the heart of Abuja- Utako district, I greet the familiar hustle and bustle of corporate life.

 I settle into my office desk, surrounded by stacks of invoices and awaiting spreadsheets- which are the tools of my trade. As an accountant for a local firm, I am responsible for managing the finances of a medium income business, a task I approach with precision and care. The hours pass quickly as I dive into work, meticulously balancing budgets, accounts reconciliations and manage the day-to-day financial shenanigans. I receive and make calls to and from clients and colleagues In Nigeria and the UK office.

 At lunchtime, I join my co-workers in the break room, sharing stories and laughter over steaming bowls of jollof rice and chicken, which is the most common meal in Nigeria Tomatoed Rice with some garnishing of vegetables or any proteins one can find. The camaraderie of my colleagues is a welcome despite the demands of the day, their shared experiences forging bonds of friendship.

 As the afternoon wears on, my focus never wavers. I take pride in my work, knowing that my efforts contribute to the success of my employer company and the smooth running of the office. My workday ends by 3:00pm. I gather my belongings and bid farewell to my colleagues, with the promise of a hot meal typically fried Yam or Plantain and stew, which is a tomatoes sauce that can be eaten with anything solid and a warm bed beckoning home. I usually get home by 4:30pm or thereabouts, and just rest from the day’s work. My younger sister is home from school by 2pm. As the sun sets over Abuja around 6:30pm, I usually catch up with her on assignments and projects, while at that we prepare for dinner and see a movie alongside.

 My parents usually don’t return from work until 7:30pm to 8pm, so we would usually wait until they return home and lock all our gates because we must be security conscious in Abuja due to the rising insecurity challenges, we face every day. Some days, we hear of cases where houses are being robbed even in day light and I wouldn’t want to ever experience that, although we have security personnel, one can’t be too safe out there.

 Despite the challenges I face in the day, I remain steadfast in my pursuit of excellence, a shining example of the resilience and determination of Nigeria's working-class accountant.

A First-Time Traveller's Journey Through Ukraine: Insights into Security Management Operations 

While I've always had a deep understanding of our services and products, it wasn't until last week that I experienced first-hand the intricacies of security management during my trip to Ukraine. 

As the Head of Marketing and Digital at Spearfish, I've had the privilege of working with a remarkable global team engaged in projects across some of the world's most delicate yet captivating countries. Our focus at Spearfish is on Security Risk Management, ensuring that individuals operating in fragile environments receive the necessary support, tools, and training to carry out their essential work.

With just a week's notice, I embarked on a journey to Ukraine, where Spearfish has been actively operating since May. Our country manager, Charlie, who has been residing in Ukraine since 2015, accompanied me on this trip.  The purpose was multi-faceted: to undergo a Journey Management exercise, immerse myself in the client's perspective, and observe our security protocols. 

 The journey began with my arrival in Rzeszow in Poland, where Charlie met me at the airport and drove across the border into Ukraine. The trip allowed me to meet our Training Team in Lviv, witness a First Aid course, and engage with clients. The subsequent 600-kilometre road trip then continued to Kyiv, where I spent 48 hours meeting clients, the team, lawyers, and accountants before returning to Poland on the long but very comfortable train journey. 

 While I had been eager to travel and meet our global team for a while, nerves set in as the departure date approached. My family, understandably concerned due to media reports on Ukraine, added an extra layer of anticipation. As a 'client,' I underwent the standard travel form submission, a routine I often oversee as Head of Digital. This was followed by a comprehensive travel briefing highlighting security assessments, risks, mitigating measures, and the on-ground expertise provided by our Regional Security Advisors (RSAs). 

The trip was an eye-opener from the start. Before we drove across the border, Charlie detailed the car's contents, emphasising the presence of essential equipment, including a First Aid Kit, a car window hammer, and personal protective equipment (PPE). This was when the reality of visiting a conflict zone sank in. 

The decision to arrive at the border early in the morning was wise. We were only four cars from the front, and the border was a relatively painless crossing. It may sound like an obvious point to mention, but it was at the crossing that I realised that being unable to understand, speak, or read the Ukrainian language would be a barrier. English is spoken but only sometimes and indeed not translated on signposts. At the border, the sight of Ukrainian men crossing into Poland for army training served as a stark reminder of the country's conscription reality. 

We arrived just before lunch. As we walked through Lviv's beautiful city centre, the cultural richness and resilience of the Ukrainian people were evident. The war has touched the city, most notably by martial law enforcing a curfew between 11 pm and 5 am each night. The sound of air raid alerts at least twice daily punctuated the peace and charm of its golden-domed churches, cobbled streets, great restaurants, and bars. Conversations with Charlie revealed his experiences in Ukraine since 2015, offering me a deeper understanding of the country and its long, complicated relationship with Russia.  

Whilst in Lviv, there was a large missile and drone attack against Kyiv. This created concern, but we reassessed the mission and decided to continue monitoring the situation. The sirens worked well, and the country's air defence systems were highly effective.   The experience of air raid sirens and discussions on Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) highlighted the delicate balance between preparedness and practicality. The city's residents displayed a remarkable blend of normalcy and vigilance, a testament to their resilience. Before getting into bed each evening, I ensured I had my grab bag, clothes and shoes ready in case I needed to make my way to the shelter.  

The road trip to Kyiv further showcased Ukraine's vastness and distinctive regions. Nearly every house, shop, and town hall flying the Ukrainian flag as sign of solidari . As we got closer to the outskirts of Kyiv, I could see areas of destruction caused by drone attacks, which underscored the gravity of the situation.  

 he city is a brilliant blend of classic Soviet Union Architecture and more Western influences; there is a café culture like everywhere else in Europe. It snowed most of the time while we were there, and the Kyiv pavements were like skating rinks. I was relieved that even the toughest-looking Ukrainians were slipping as much as I was.  

The prospect of Putin targeting the country's utilities and infrastructure was sobering. In a city where the modern conveniences of life are often taken for granted, the sudden loss of electricity and heating would transform daily existence into a struggle for survival. The quaint cafes that provide warmth and refuge would go dark, and winter's biting cold would replace the familiar hum of central heating. 

Meetings with lawyers, accountants, and clients provided valuable insights into the importance of Spearfish's work in Ukraine. The trip spotlighted my misconceptions, revealing the profound connection Ukrainians have with their country and the significance of their identity amid ongoing challenges. 

My journey through Ukraine not only provided a unique perspective on the operations of our security management company but also offered a profound understanding of the resilience, pride, and determination that define the Ukrainian people. This experience reinforced Spearfish's commitment to ensuring the safety and well-being of those working in fragile environments.  

Before this trip, I was well travelled, but travelling to a conflict zone is different. I had to think about my 'risk appetite' before travel and the whole time I was there. Once you're in the country, your risk appetite might change. Mine did, but because I was not travelling alone and had the support of an in-country expert, I was able to ask the questions, which was highly reassuring.  

I loved my travels through this fascinating country, well-loved by its people and look forward to returning. 

Looking to the future of integrated Duty of Care for the humanitarian and development sector.

Overview 

Our Managing Director Dan Hooton was invited to be part a panel of the Opening Event in the Duty of Care Pavillon at Aidex Conference in Geneva recently.

It was a great event and very well attended. The panel which included the Executive Director of GISF, the Head of Field Security Services at UNHCR, the Director of Global Safety and Security at Save the Children and Partner at Proelium Law were all engaging and were able to draw from a wealth of experience and knowledge.

Below is taken from Dan’s opening comments during the event;

Duty of Care in the humanitarian context is certainly in the spotlight, given the current events around the world. Just to mention two in particular that are in all of our thoughts, Ukraine and Israel/Gaza, both very different environments, where we have to deliver the mission whilst keeping our people safe and secure at all costs. Our principles to achieve that might be the same, but in each country, how we do that could be extremely different. 

Duty of care has always been challenged by funding issues, and this remains no different today.  It is not just the cost to deliver effective duty of care, be that through attendance on a training course, the purchase of a travel security product, or the employment of a security specialist. Still, it is also the time is takes out of the working day, time away from core delivery, and time otherwise spent on being productive and delivering your mission. But this time must be found, as the costs to organisations if this is not done properly can be huge. 

A body of case law is emerging that will hold Spearfish to account legally if things go wrong, whether that be from your domiciled legal environment, for example, the Health and Safety Executive in the UK using Corporate Manslaughter or a private prosecution from a law firm where they think an employer has been negligent in their care, and there is a case to answer. One such example highlighted one being brought against a German NGO operating in Syria by two former employees. They believe that the security management system and the failings of the crisis response to their kidnap were significant factors in the fact that a, they were detained in the first place, and b, it took 48 days to get them released from a Syrian prison. 

The view would be that the legal framework has not changed dramatically, there is just a higher likelihood of negligence being proven as case law increases. This is also being driven by an increasing focus on the wellbeing of the individual. The funding issue however remains a constant challenge, and this is fuelled by the fact that one organisation’s view on duty of care might differ wildly from another’s. There is little consistency across the industry, a situation that events like today are seeking to address in seminars such as this.

This perspective has been largely informed by international development experience, where we tend to be engaged by programs who are taking part in pre-planned donor-funded activities, but Spearfish are increasingly being drawn into more urgent, humanitarian projects such as first aid and hostile environment training for a fast-moving and dynamic environment such as Ukraine. 

Spearfish is part way through a digitisation process, in other words, we are taking our products from largely person-led delivery, and seeing to what extent they can be delivered as digital products, or as hybrid products to save time and cost for those who may not have the time or funding to prepare as much as they might want to.

Contextualisation & Localisation of your Duty of Care platform 

Digitisation – trying to get the balance between a product that is meaningful and delivers value, versus losing impact by being a remote, non-contact experience.

User requirements – what do people want or need to remain fully engaged and conversant with your duty of care approach?

To start with contextualisation and localisation, we can’t adopt a one size fits all to our DOC, we know that, so we must adapt it to the environment we are operating in. The question is how? Three areas we as a company must consider are:

Activity - We often talk about ‘doing no harm’ when we describe donor-funded activities but what does that really mean? If I visit a community will my presence, there create issues for those people after I have gone? How will the permanent team handle this? Will it create issues for the next traveller in? What if the activity upsets the balance between two communities, or raises the risk for one? These are all questions that need to be worked out. 

Appetite - Sometimes referred to as tolerance, there is a question of how much risk an organisation is willing to bear.  This must be aligned with the individual as sometimes they can be quite different; it is our job to give a clear-eyed view of what is reasonable to take on. Residual risk will be left after mitigation plans have been developed, and again that needs to fit with expectations, both for the organisation and the individual. 

Ability - How to handle the risk, experience versus training. What assumptions are we making about the individual and the organisation’s ability to handle the risk, either due to their training and/or experience. When you dig down into the team composition, are there any weak points, i.e., people who need extra mentoring or support? Is everyone confident and happy, or do they need a little extra time and attention to properly absorb the level of risk they are taking on.

With regards to localisation, our experience is that those living and working in complex environments don’t want to hear from someone in an ops room in London or New York, but they want to speak to and interact with, someone who also lives and works in the same environment. At Spearfish we employ a large proportion of security advisors from our countries of operation. Not only have they lived and breathed the risks they are talking about, but they also have a far better appreciation of how those risks will manifest themselves in the programme or activity they are advising on. In my view, a localised DOC platform is essential to your approach but it must be run along the lines of international best practice, GPR8, etc for it to have meaning when we think back to the legal constraints we are operating within. If you can combine both, then you have a sustainable and effective approach. 

Moving onto Digitisation. At Spearfish, we are currently in the middle of a knowledge transfer partnership with a UK university to digitise our consulting products. What does that mean? 

We are developing a digital interface that connects our security advisors to their clients. This connection, allows those clients to be empowered to make timely decisions and keep safe when carrying out their activities. ​By keeping our advisors at the forefront of the product, we can maintain our value, and not replace ourselves with an algorithm or an analyst sitting in an ops room in London etc.

It allows us to provide pre-mission advice, live environmental updates, display locations of clients and points of interest and provide immediate crisis response when required. Training material and standard operating procedures are also available on your phone, creating a pool of knowledge for both clients and advisors alike.

However, remote support only goes so far, and how does that compare to having a security specialist physically with you on your field mission or missing out on a full 3-day HEAT course, compared to a 1-day Hybrid course supplemented with online learning. The answer is it needs to be a blend, maximizing the advantages of e-learning and constant communication, without sacrificing on-the-ground capability. The higher the risk, the greater physical presence required.  Finally, to finish on user requirements, and by this, the ability and appetite of the beneficiaries of your duty of care system to want to engage with it, and to follow its guidance. As part of our digitisation project, we have set up several focus groups, which have revealed some interesting facts. 

Security Focus Groups

We asked several questions to a group of security managers in various development sector organisations.

First, we asked how you currently go about solving your DOC obligations and your frustrations in this. On risk assessments, fact-checking, cleared accommodation, alerts, check-ins, and medical and mental well-being considerations were all listed. Frustrations included being presented with multiple sources with differing advice or risk levels, information overload (particularly with alerts), and lack of local sources to be able to cross-check the facts. 

A consensus formed around having an operational DOC model that was easy to use, with continuity and resilience built into it and that was easily accessible to all the users. This was described as the gold standard. Current issues revolved around not being able to get people onto platforms, either due to poor connectivity or ignorance of the user base of how to use it.

Conclusion

On policy, one item that came up time and again was that security only "owns" a portion of DOC, so ensuring buy-in from the other "owners" remains a challenge. In other words, the security team might write the policy but then had no teeth in terms of operationalising those policies. That was done by other parts of the organisation, who might have different priorities or different views on how to do this.

In all the above, there are a multitude of user requirements that need to be satisfied if you are to have any chance of success of rolling out your DOC platform. 

 To conclude, the three key areas to take away from this blog are;

Contextualisation – how we move away from a one-size fits all approach, and use factors such as activity, appetite, and ability to contextualise and localise your approach.

Digitisation – how much do we put online and into an app or your phone versus the value of physical presence either during a training course or with an advisor on your team, and how higher risk levels might inform this?

User Requirements – if you don’t consider people's ability to be able to understand, access, and operate your platform, you might have the best DOC system in the world, but it won’t get used by those who need it.

Thank you for taking the time to read our blog, if you would like more information on the services and training offered by Spearfish Security, please visit our website at https://www.spear-fish.com/

International Day of the Girl

The International Day of the Girl (IDG), marked annually on October 11, is a global platform for advocating for girls' rights. This year, when various movements and actions aim to restrict girls and women's rights and reverse progress toward gender equality, we observe particularly devastating effects on girls. There is an urgent need for increased attention and resources for the key areas that enable girls to realise their rights and achieve their full potential, from maternal health care and parenting support for adolescent mothers to digital and life skills training, from comprehensive sexuality education to survivor support services and violence prevention programs.

In response to the cries for change made by girls, the global community must go beyond renewing promises and engage boldly in the action required to effect change. The International Day of the Girl revolves around.

Centre girls in protecting and promoting rights

To combat the pushback against gender equality, they must prioritise girls' rights in their work. girls are often overlooked regarding maternal health care, parenting assistance, unpaid care work, or access to financial knowledge and resources. Equality for girls in any space must be fair to prevent this from happening, whether it is a debate in an international resolution, the development of a national policy, or the support of grassroots initiatives in response to a humanitarian crisis.

Recognize, celebrate, and support girls' leadership

Investing in girls' leadership entails providing space and platforms for girls to raise their voices at all levels of policymaking, directly funding girls' movements and networks, and incorporating girls' voices, agency, and leadership into all programming.

Ensure information, services and systems meaningfully change to be adolescent-girl-friendly

This involves addressing the stigma and poor treatment that many adolescent girls have expressed when it comes to obtaining vital services, such as sexual and reproductive health care, attending to school if pregnant/having given birth, or managing menstrual health and cleanliness.

Challenges for girls in the world today

We see stark ways in which girls are left behind across various dimensions as a result of these patriarchal tendencies playing out at every level - from formal governing institutions to community norms, family behaviour, and individual attitudes. As an example:

Today, roughly one in every five girls does not complete lower secondary school, and nearly four out of ten girls do not complete upper secondary school. And in certain areas, the figures are far worse. In low-income nations, almost 90% of adolescent girls and young women do not utilise the internet.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, 100 million girls faced child marriage in the coming decade. Because to the COVID-19 epidemic, up to 10 million more girls globally will be at danger of marrying as children during the next ten years.

Globally, girls aged 5-14 spend 160 million more hours each day than boys of the same age on unpaid care and domestic work. This lopsided distribution of unpaid work intensifies during adolescence, with substantial consequences for the well-being of girls.

International Day of the Girl in Kenya and Ethiopia

Kenya and Ethiopia, like many other nations throughout the world, observe International Day of the Girl to raise awareness of the specific difficulties and issues that girls confront and to promote gender equality. This day is observed in Kenya and Ethiopia with a variety of activities and initiatives aimed at emphasising the importance of girls' rights and empowerment. Such activities which are used to help empower girls include.

Educational seminars:

Hold seminars or webinars to teach females about their rights, self-esteem, leadership, and professional options.

Awareness Campaigns:

Launch social media campaigns in which you share tales and information regarding the difficulties that females experience, as well as the importance of gender equality such as with the chairperson of the local civil society in Nakuru city, Ms. Agnes Mwamburi advocating for continuing changes for girls in central and rural Kenya - https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/international-day-of-the-girl-child/

School and College Events:

Encourage educational institutions to hold special events, assemblies, or workshops to teach students about gender equality.

Awareness Materials:

Create and distribute informational booklets, posters, and instructional materials regarding the significance of the day and the difficulties that girls confront. “Yet child marriage, adolescent pregnancy, and gender-based violence derail the lives of far too many girls. Increased, targeted investments in sexual and reproductive health services and comprehensive sexuality education equips adolescent girls with the tools to make informed decisions about their bodies and lives, and empowers them as agents of change and future leaders” a comment made by the Executive Director of the UNFPA of Ethiopia, which focuses on the premises oif International day of the girl challenging and address a rising issue of child marriage within Ethiopia. https://ethiopia.unfpa.org/en/news/statement-unfpa-executive-director-international-day-girl-11-october

The Premises of International Day of the Girl is to help disadvantaged girls from different backgrounds into education and help them achieve.

In Summary, The International Day of the Girl is significant because it raises awareness of the special issues that girls confront and advocates for their rights, equality, and empowerment. By commemorating this day, societies and governments may work towards a more just and equal world in which every girl can reach her full potential.

At spearfish we have been advocating the Home Office’s Violence Against Woman and Girls imitative since 2020 and have been running 1 day personal safety courses in the UK, Nigeria and soon to be running in Nairobi. To learn more about our training contact us today.  

Spearfish Ukraine roll out HEAT Training in Dinipro

Earlier this month Spearfish Ukraine delivered its inaugural HEAT course just outside of Dnipro

Earlier this month Spearfish Ukraine delivered its inaugural HEAT course just outside of Dnipro. We were pleased to see weeks of hard work pay off and watch the course unfold as planned. And while it was satisfying to see our students take away valuable learning, we ourselves left with an important lesson.

Our primary objective was to provide 14 years of Spearfish’s experience delivering HEAT and combine it with our instructors’ own knowledge of the Ukrainian context in order to create and deliver market-leading safety training for the humanitarian sector. For example, Yuliia has been a mine action officer locally and worldwide for nearly a decade. Dmytro has delivered and interpreted trauma first aid courses for a range of different organisations and audiences in Ukraine. Matt has spent years as a paramedic in the Donbas, the UK and elsewhere. And Charlie has been on the front line in Ukraine since 2015, formerly as an OSCE observer in Donetsk and Mariupol. Together, we were able to design a course that helps the humanitarian sector mitigate the specific threats inherent in Ukraine today.

Our students were from diverse backgrounds themselves. Two were emergency doctors from Dnipro, one driver and one security officer were from international NGOs, one international student was new to Ukraine and one volunteer was from a local NGO. Their own experiences were incredibly valuable to the course, whether that be attending multiple vehicle collisions in a medical capacity, understanding gender-based violence at checkpoints, explaining the language and coordination problems between local and international NGOs or the describing the current threats that face volunteers helping IDPs. Incorporating that knowledge, and that of future students, into the Spearfish Ukraine HEAT course will be critical to remaining current and relevant as we deliver more courses.

Surprisingly, only the one international student from an INGO had attended a HEAT course previously. The principle was actually relatively alien to most of the other students. For the Spearfish Ukraine staff, it was gratifying to see the students appreciate the course content, both in terms of specific lessons and holistically as a course that incorporated practical sessions and scenarios. Some understood “the risk matrix” but had never changed a wheel, while others knew how to “stop the bleed” but hadn’t considered the asbestos threat from damaged buildings. We were very humbled to receive great feedback at the end of the course, knowing that without students’ enthusiastic participation, the course would not have been half as engaging.

That national Ukrainian staff were new to HEAT is unfortunate. National staff across the humanitarian sector are disproportionately represented in casualty statistics. For example, the Aid Worker Security Report 2023 states that of 444 aid worker victims of violence worldwide last year, 421 (95%) were national staff.[1] The pattern is virtually identical for all the years on record. While sobering, that is perhaps not surprising when considering that national staff usually make up the bulk of the humanitarian sector workforce. What is surprising is that they often miss out on the same level of training and resources as their international counterparts, be that HEAT training, PPE provision, insurance packages, healthcare etc. Often, that may be because local NGOs simply lack the resources that large international NGOs command. Yet where those large international NGOs ask national staff to face in-country threats, either through direct employment, contracting or often through partnering, they have a duty to ensure those risks are mitigated for.

Partnerships between large international NGOs and smaller Ukrainian NGOs are critical in the delivery of humanitarian assistance to those who need it. They allow funding and expertise to be channelled through people who know the ground, understand the needs, speak the language and have the permanency in-country. Often, national staff working for Ukrainian NGOs are volunteers, working purely on the principle of supporting their communities, or earning little more than a subsistence salary. While they may take risks voluntarily, and are able to stay lean and operational as a result, the budgets that come in from abroad should be deployed to keep them safe in their work, especially when their work is on behalf of international NGOs.

Spearfish Ukraine wants to encourage that duty of care to extend beyond the books of international NGOs to include those local volunteers mentioned in the statistics above. On our recent course, we offered some free places to the smallest NGO’s without funds for such training. As we work with larger clients, we want to develop mechanisms where a similar approach can be incorporated alongside paying attendees. We hope to be part of an industry shift where the safety needs of Ukrainian NGOs are considered in international humanitarian projects’ budgets.

We are excited to see what the future holds for Spearfish Ukraine, but at the same time the tragedy that unfolded shortly after we wrapped up the course reminds us that what we are doing is important for those working day-to-day in field. We would like to extend a thanks to our students for their valuable input and engagement on the course and hope to replicate the success as we begin to scale up our delivery.

[1] Humanitarian Outcomes, Aid Worker Security Report 2023, https://www.humanitarianoutcomes.org/AWSR_2023

To learn more about our HEAT Courses in Ukraine please contact rosieturner@spear-fish.com


Ukraine Politico-Military Situation

Strategic Objectives in the Ukraine Counter-Offensive

Strategic Objectives in the Ukraine Counter-Offensive

Much of the Ukraine analysis in Western media has focused on the state of the counter-offensive. Specifically, analysts have focused on the tactical picture around Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Klishiivka in the Donetsk Oblast. Success in Robotyne and breaking through the Russian defensive lines opens the way to Tokmak. Capturing Tokmak would put much of the Russian road and rail routes to Crimea within range of Ukrainian artillery and MLRS systems. In a sense, Ukraine has the opportunity to cut the “land bridge” to Crimea without physically holding the ground. The arrival of the American ATACMS will be pivotal in this regard. Klishiivka on the other hand provides the high ground necessary to take and hold Bakhmut further north in the future. Again, the recent arrival of American cluster munitions are already said to be helping take a toll on Russian trench positions here. In re-capturing Bakhmut, Ukraine is able to demonstrate its will to fight to Western backers and deal a blow to morale to the Russian forces that spilt so much blood in taking it.

Ukraine's Resilience Amid Slow Progress

That we are talking about small, specific towns, and that we have been talking about the same small towns for weeks, indicates the slow progress of the counter-offensive. The Kharkiv counter-offensive in 2022 gained so much ground in so little time that analysis spoke of cities and oblasts, not villages and tree-lines. Analysis today is also right to note the time constraints on Ukrainian forces: the approaching autumn and the American elections next year. It is difficult to imagine large successes in the counter-offensive with the time available.

Here it is important to note the Ukrainian will to fight. Zelensky has repeatedly ruled out negotiations while Russian forces remain on Ukrainian territory and while Putin is in power, and this position appears resolute. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian population seems ready for the long-haul. There is an acceptance of the situation, and with little complaint, perseverance. It is visible day-to-day. Institutions are functioning, the trains run on time, business are open, people walk in the parks in the evenings and weekends. The sirens still sound but are tolerated, in much the same way that people came to tolerate coronavirus three years previously. People continue to talk of the pending victory and curse the Russians in the same breath. The calls for negotiations are from abroad, not from Ukraine.

The Challenge of Sustaining Ukraine's Counter-Offensive

And so the question is inevitably raised: can Ukraine succeed in its counter-offensive before Western support dwindles? What is missing from analysis, however, is not the tactical picture on the ground, nor the state of Western support. It is the political picture in Russia.

It is easy for us to watch a few battlefield videos or hear a few anecdotes about the poor state of the Russian army, and make the conclusion that Russia does not have the military prowess it claimed in the run-up to the invasion. But for all its tactical failures, Russia still has the vast materiel resources and manpower to continue fighting 18 months on against an opponent supported militarily, diplomatically and financially by most of the world’s largest economies. As this realisation dawns, along with the growing consensus that the war will continue for years rather than months, it is natural to worry that critical voices will grow louder, from Viktor Orban to Tucker Carlson.

Russia's Brittle Political Landscape and Growing Discontent: Insights and Implications

But while the Russian state may not be fragile, it is brittle. Some may point to the iron grip Putin appears to have over Russia’s institutions, politics and society and compare it to the comparative weakness of Western leaders. Britain went through three Prime Ministers in two months last year, for example, while Putin has been in power for over 20 years. But the reality is that the Russian political system has no room for flex. When change comes, it comes hard and fast, as seen multiple times over the last century plus. Where in the West, the party may change but the political mechanisms endure, in Russia the upheaval is full political revolution- the kind not seen in Britain since Oliver Cromwell. The Wagner debacle, while perhaps not the change we want, was a small glimpse at the kind of “black swan” event in the future that we cannot foresee today.

The Ukrainian criticism of the Russian citizenry is that they lack the initiative, conviction or motivation seen on Maidan in 2013-14. That is fair. State persecution of political opposition is harsh, but Russians who oppose the war have so far been more likely to take a flight to the Red Sea than organise an uprising on the Red Square.

Yet while it is hard to measure, discontent in Russia is rising. Younger citizens, particularly those with access to online media as opposed the state television, question where their country is headed, and why they are today politically closer to North Korea than Berlin or Paris. They are also not blind to the irony of “standing up to the West” but at the same time selling sovereignty in Siberia to China. Reminders of Russia’s isolation are everywhere: the loss of international clients in the lucrative IT sphere, the absence of Western high street brands, the loss of direct flights to Europe and new visa restrictions on Russian citizens. The list goes on. But while that may not be enough to spark a political upheaval, it certainly acts as a substantial supply of fuel once ignition is reached. That this “enlightened” liberal citizenry is located primarily in Moscow and St Petersburg will likely play its part.

Conclusion

So, while it is not wrong to put Ukraine’s counter-offensive against a Westen timetable of elections and changing seasons, it should not be done without considering the picture in Russia too. Discussion around whether Ukraine can indeed reach the Azov Sea militarily may turn out to be a moot point, should an upheaval in Russia precipitate. Analysis should therefore consider whether Western support can enable Ukraine to sustain itself long enough not to reach the American election, but to hold out for a Russian political collapse.

THE NIGER CONUNDRUM

What has happened since the Coup?

Six weeks after the July 26th coup, the return to power of the democratically elected Nigerien President, Mohamed Bazoum seems increasingly unlikely. Abdourahmane Tchiani, head of Niger’s presidential guard, named himself head of a transitional government.  The 62-year-old general declared the intervention to be necessary to avoid “the gradual and inevitable demise” of the country.

For the Sahel, West Africa, and ECOWAS, Niger’s development in the coming months will also be crucial. The radical stance of the Niger junta has made it very difficult for ECOWAS to engage in dialogue. But it remains essential to avoid an external military intervention, the threat of which has generated an active military alliance from Mali and Burkina Faso and given the junta the opportunity to further mobilize the population by playing on patriotic sentiments.  

 France, Germany, Italy and the United States all have a military presence in Niger and will have to make some tough choices in the short term. Continued military presence will not be possible if a government hostile to them is installed in Niamey. But while France is directly implicated by the demonstrators supporting the coup, the United States—whose military presence and political influence have always been more discreet—has some room for manoeuvre in managing this period of uncertainty. Niger had been France’s most reliable ally in the region but the junta has since declared the end of defence agreements that authorised the presence of French soldiers on Nigerien soil. A forced withdrawal from Niger would further reduce France’s influence, leaving only Chad and the West African coastal states of Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, and possibly Benin as host countries for a continued French presence. 

The overthrow of Bazoum may also signal a shift in alliances toward Russia. Like many African countries, Niger also has a long history of cooperation with Russia and many of its military equipments are Russian-made.   But Niger is not close to Moscow and voted for a UN resolution for the end of Russia’s use of force against Ukraine.

Niger has not escaped insurgent attacks by armed groups affiliated to ISIS and AQIM, but it has fared much better than its neighbours Mali and Burkina Faso.   Insecurity is worst in the Tillabéry region in the West near the border with Mali, where armed jihadi groups operate relatively freely. However, the civilian Niger government had retained control of much of its territory.  

Why is the west so interested?

While Niger’s economic and social indicators place it at the bottom of global development indices, these metrics also understate the country’s strategic importance of this vast country. Its geographical position at the crossroads of North, West, and Central Africa; its mineral and oil resources; its potential for the development of renewable energies; and its strong demographic growth help explain the seemingly outsize interest of medium and large powers in the current crisis.

Despite Tchiani’s reasoning on the need for the coup, Niger was on a promising economic path, with high economic growth rates from 2022. There were ambitious reform and investment plans in education, continued discoveries of increasingly large oil reserves and the expectation of the Kandadji dam and hydropower plant on the Niger River (by 2025) regenerating ecosystems and securing a national source of energy production (as 70 percent of Niger’s electricity was imported from Nigeria prior to the coup).  Uranium has lost its importance as a capital earner since the expansion of oil processing and export. That positive future is now uncertain.

What next for ECOWAS?

During the past 6 weeks, various attempts to talk with the junta have resulted in stalemate. Over the same period, the junta have striven to leigitimse their interim administration, nominating a civilian, Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine, as the Prime Minister.

 Despite the heftly sanctions imposed on Niger by ECOWAS, including the severing of the power supply, 70% of which was provided by Nigeria, Prime Minister Zeine assures the press that the Niger administration continue talks with ECOWAS and that he expects a positive outcome very soon.

 The newly appointed ECOWAS Chair is the recently installed Nigerian President, BolaTinubu. Under his guidance, ECOWAS has also warned several times of intervening militarily to reinstate Bazoum, but only if peaceful attempts to resolve the crisis fail.

A key question in the crisis is a timeline for returning to civilian rule. ECOWAS has rejected the junta’s ambition for a three-year transition. As Nigerian President, Tinubu has suggested a nine-month transition back to civilian rule. Algeria, which also expresses a vested interest as a neighbouring country with economic ties, has suggested a six-month transition.

Should it come to a military intervention, Nigeria would be expected to provide the bulk of the military force and associated logistic support. President Tinubu has just completed his first 100 days in the job and finds himself embattled with very high inflation, increasing fuel prices (now subsidy free), a national currency in freefall against the dollar and an increasingly vocal and angry populace, suffering as a result. Whilst a military campaign might potentially assist in distracting the focus from domestic woes to uniting the country in a foreign enterprise, it is doubtful that Nigeria’s economy could bear the financial burden. As both the Nigerian president and as the ECOWAS Chair, Bola Tinubu needs to weigh up his options and tread carefully.

For ECOWAS, the challenge is to demonstrate political nerve in bolstering democracy. Before Niger, there were coups in Guinea, Burkina Fasso and Mali. Since the Niger coup, Gabon’s civilian government has also been replaced by a military junta. Cameroon is reported to have responded to this threatening trend by restructuring its military high command. The credibility and value of ECOWAS hangs in the balance.

HEAT & Duty of Care in Ukraine

HEAT & Duty of care in UKraine

Hostile Environment Awareness Training, or HEAT, has been a regular product of the security consultancy industry for years. It helps students navigate potentially hostile circumstances by teaching theory in the classroom, embedding that theory through exercise, and facilitating its recall through simulating stressful scenarios.

HEAT - an overview

HEAT is borne through organisations’ concept of duty of care to their staff. It is not enough for organisations to send their staff into difficult situations with only a notepad, pen and insurance package. Responsible organisations provide their staff and partners with all the tools available to navigate, negotiate and negate the threats their organisation is pitting them against.

Among HEAT providers, British outfits are often well represented. That is partly because of Britain’s institutional knowledge of operating abroad, both in the conflict and post-conflict space, and more recently in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is also partly due to the UK’s large overseas aid budget and the global reach of projects borne from it, and to Britain’s well-developed media industry. But it is also because of Britain’s duty of care culture (and legal system), where organisations are expected to protect their employees, and risk owners and risk managers are well-defined. HEAT providers local to the theatre are often therefore lacking, not because local skills and experience are absent, but because they have not been called upon from a duty of care perspective.

Broadly, HEAT has been focused on theatres in the Global South, and in particular Sub-Saharan Africa, MENA and Southern Asia. Spearfish is no exception; it’s where the market has been. Ukraine differs in most respects. It is not post-conflict for one thing. It does not struggle with managing infrastructure; just compare Nova Poshta with Royal Mail. It is not overrun with non-state actors; the oligarchy prefers the shadows to the streets. Yet, Ukraine is at war, and war is very much a hostile environment, even if the specific threats and the cultural context are different.

Adapting HEAT Training for Unique Challenges in Ukraine

One of the most pertinent examples of how Ukraine’s specifics affects HEAT is the discussion around the kidnap threat. Kidnap has been a staple of HEAT courses for years, not only because it has been a serious threat in other theatres, but because it offers the prospect of immersive scenarios on HEAT courses. Plenty of HEAT students will recall in the past being “ambushed”, bagged and cuffed and subsequently held in stress positions during mock interrogations. But most people operating in Ukraine are almost certainly never going to be exposed to that kind of threat. The non-state groups that use kidnap do not enjoy in Ukraine the vacuums of power that are needed, and the kidnap threat from the Russian military is overshadowed by the threats involved reaching that scenario.

Yet at the same time, the loss of one’s freedom of movement is still perfectly feasible in Ukraine. Through having the wrong documents at a checkpoint, an exotic stamp in one’s passport, a miscommunication in the field, detention is a threat and while it may not have the same level of impact as in other theatres, it may still lead to project delays or loss of equipment, and has done for many already.

The environmental threat is also somewhat unique. Gone is the earthquake and hurricane threat, but instead flooding from breeched dam in Kakhovka and fears of nuclear meltdown in Energodar (possibly the strangest city in Ukraine, anyone who’s seen the film “S Lurkhim Parom I Ironia Sudby” will know why). As for street crime, you’d be better off in Lutsk than London, yet the same would not be said for fraud and financial crime. The list goes on. And on.

The challenge for HEAT providers is the integration of these nuances into tried and tested formats, without them just being an after-thought. “Baking in” as opposed to “sprinkling on top”. Not least because plenty of students will be Ukrainian themselves and will be able to call out contextual ignorance a mile off (hence Spearfish’s efforts to localise its HEAT through its Ukrainian instructors).

Another challenge is the political context. Ukraine is fighting a war against an aggressor, and most foreigners are in country to support Ukraine in some capacity. But how do we separate our own sentiments and loyalties from the principles of some very important organisations that many of us work either for or with (objectivity, non-alignment, non-interference)? How do we address some of the threats in country without appearing culturally critical (alcoholism, corruption)? And how do we deal with situations where our own advice conflicts with that of our host or deploying governments?

Conclusion

Ukraine, then, offers a unique challenge to HEAT providers, and an “off the shelf” course doesn’t cut it. We should rise to that challenge, both in order to prepare our students for the plethora of threats they face in the field and to help client organisations fulfil their duty of care to staff. In turn, the knock-on effects are positive.

First, as a security consultancy industry, we can improve our own institutional knowledge of hostile environments, in particular through listening to the experiences of our students who are usually the ones at the coal face. This can then be fed back into subsequent courses not only in Ukraine but beyond.

Second (and more importantly), one would hope that the duty of care culture we are familiar with spreads. Many international NGOs still outsource their projects to local partners, sometimes specifically in order to avoid duty of care obligations to those working in the most dangerous locations. That should change, and large NGOs with big budgets should extend their duty of care to their local partners, in part by providing them with HEAT. Amongst all the suffering in Ukraine today, this remains an opportunity for positive change.

Nigeria Security Update – August 2023

One of President Tinubu’s first initiatives when he took the office in May this year was to instigated the removal of the fuel subsidy and floated the Naira. Both actions if effectively and strategically managed are economically rational to help improve Nigeria’s future. In the short term, this has proved a devastating blow for the country.

Fuel Crisis

Fuel costs have risen higher than the initial subsidy margin, with unscrupulous suppliers rationing supply to further push up prices. This has impacted heavily on all sectors of the economy across the country, with the poor bearing the brunt of the pain. Nigeria’s own National Bureau for Statistics Nov 22 report identified 62% (133M) of the population as living in poverty.

Nigeria’s burgeoning youthful demographic, many with degrees but unable to find proper employment, have made ends meet by working as taxi or keke drivers or risking solo start-ups in agriculture, tech, and entrepreneurship activities. Following the removal of fuel subsidies, increased fuel costs have impacted public transport in all its forms as well as hyperinflating the cost of fresh food due to higher distribution costs. The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN) reported that over 2 million businesses collapsed between 2017 and 2021 and the current situation is likely to trigger a drastic increase in these numbers.

The President addressed the Nation on 31 July, offering a range of economic palliatives, including a review of minimum wage, large financial injections into the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, the purchase of 3,000 LNG-powered public transport buses, and cash handouts to 12 million households, all by March 2024.

Sadly, the FG’s record on minimum wage is not good. The previous national minimum wage of N30k was not met in many States. These difficulties resulted in multiple industrial actions. The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), alongside the Trade Union Congress (TUC), has taken to the streets to first protest the current economic hardship. The protest was initially planned to demand a reversal of the recent increase in fuel prices and electricity tariffs, as well as other economic measures that have been implemented by the government. This has evolved into the promise of full-on industrial strike action if demands are not met.

Also, there is little point in fertilizer, crop seed, and financial injection into the agricultural sector if the FG can’t guarantee a safe and peaceful bandit-free environment in which the farmers can operate.

There is no doubt that Nigeria’s economic ship is in the midst of a violent storm. The first ‘popped rivet’ occurred in Yola where 2 were killed and 110 arrested during the looting, which quickly spread from government food warehouses to private businesses in the market on Sunday 30th July. A State-wide curfew was imposed in response.

Niger 

The Niger Republic coup has unfortunate timing, especially as the newly elected president of Nigeria President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has just been appointed as the chair of ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States). Nigeria has a long, porous border with Niger and has maintained a healthy relationship with the bordering country most notably with the recent past administration.  

The ECOWAS deadline to reinstate the Niger President passed yesterday, Sunday 6th August. The Nigerian Army’s 8th Division is reportedly conducting a ‘live firing competition’ in Sokoto State, near the Niger border. However, Nigeria can ill afford to spare troops for a costly intervention, given the state of insecurity across the country and especially in many northern and south-eastern states. However, given Nigeria’s multiple domestic woes, the opportunity to adjust the national focus to an external challenge might be seen as opportune.

Conclusion

The coming months will be very challenging for the new President and Federal Government, unless the FG policies and palliatives are both swift and outwardly obvious, there is a clear risk of widespread and evolving civil protest and social upheaval.

Spearfish Take Part in Work Experience with Ark St Alban's Academy

Last week Spearfish Security took part in a remote Work experience programme in partnership with Ark St Alban’s Academy. 

We had the pleasure of spending time with students Aleesa, Imran and Jerusalem and Joseph. The goal of the programme was to open the students minds to what careers are available to them and how a SME works.  We asked the students to write an article on their experience and their understanding of the company, read below their thoughts on the team!  

Introduction:  

Spearfish is a security business, originally set up in 2009 by Dan Hooton, that aids companies in matters concerning security of employees during foreign travel or operations taking place abroad. Spearfish have four main offices based in; UK, South Asia, West Africa and (most recently) Ukraine. They offer a range of services such as planning design, training, crisis response. 

Managing Director- Dan Hooton:  

Every business requires a brilliant leader and at Spearfish, Managing Director Dan, who set up the company in 2009, provides exactly this. He wanted to continue his consultancy work as part of a brand, and by 2023, has increased the team to 25 people. As Managing Director, Dan has 3 main roles; managing clients; developing new products; and managing the team. For now, the focus is growing in Ukraine, and his recent visit to the capital consolidated his positive opinions about the place. 

‘This has taught me about the importance of everybody within the team having a synchronized effort to achieve the task at hand, be it the founder/the CEO, or the people behind the scenes that still have the same prevalence, without the same notoriety.‘  
— Imran

Office management – Aisha Gekpe ( Abuja) and Angela Farrington ( UK) 

 Angela, working alongside accountants like Aisha, plays a big role in the financial operations of Spearfish; recording and managing cashflow with the business, both in present and for the foreseeable future to allow the business to be prepared.  However, as well as company finances, Angela will also ensure the office can properly function.  Evidently these jobs are all extremely important for Spearfish to operate, but they generally aren’t brought to light as much as their counterparts, so it was nice for us to gain an insight into them.  

‘Personally, I think that this work experience has taught me a lot about how to work together with people and listen to other people’s ideas so that everyone is included.’ 
— Jerusalem

RSAs (Regional Safety Advisors):  

RSA’s will generally operate globally and so are also employed internationally, as we found with some of the people we had the privilege of speaking with; Darren in the UK, Fouad in Lebanon, Fida in Pakistan and Charlie who is now in Ukraine.  The process seems to begin with the gathering of information on the clients, including where they intend to travel, the number of people involved, any medical technicalities and more. This work is of course vital to Spearfish and requires a lot of careful thought and consideration. This links into the many training programs among the RSA, including first aid, skills like changing Tyres and their H.E.A.T (Hostile Environment Awareness Training), which allows them to act out real life scenarios and their appropriate response to allow employees and clients to be prepared for worst case scenarios.  

Digital & Marketing- Rosie Turner:  

Marketing is at the heart of Spearfish. Rosie, Head of Digital Marketing, plays a major role in many parts of this.  Rosie also mentioned that she worked closely with gathering information on clients and gaining client’s trust, helping them to better understand the processes carried out by the business that may be unfamiliar to clients who are not familiar with security firms.  This greatly interested those of us interested in careers in tech and media and Rosie was able to give us an insight on how these jobs were incorporated in businesses like Spearfish.  

‘This experience has led to me discovering new ideas and interests in what career path I want to take in my ambitious strive for success.’  
— Joseph

Intern Conall Hornett 

Conall is studying at the University of Winchester and has a bachelors in criminology and is working on his dissertation which he has received help from Spearfish for. He came into Spearfish on the basis of this interest and study and greatly enjoys his time within Spearfish. He said this has allowed him to experience a lot of hands-on work and work while applying his degree and gaining confidence and research experience.  

There were of course challenges with the internship, having to learn while you work and gaining confidence in public speaking and larger workloads. However, he was able to tell us that these challenges improve over time as one becomes more experienced, which was very encouraging for ourselves. 

The Spearfish team thoroughly enjoyed our time with the school students who were clearly interested and engaged. We wish them all the best of luck with their future careers and hope our paths cross again.  

‘I think it was really nice to see how different sectors came together to form such an important business and I think this experience has allowed me to practice my teamworking skills and information organization and retrieval.’  

— Aleesa

Security Report: The Ramifications of Political Instability on Safety in Kenya

Introduction:

This security report delves into the consequences of political instability in Kenya following the 2022 general election. The strained relationship between former President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy, President William Ruto, along with the government's policies, has had a profound impact on the safety and security situation in the country. This report highlights the key issues affecting security and provides an assessment of the risks involved.

Political Fallout and Unfulfilled Promises:

The fallout between Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, triggered by the 2018 Handshake and subsequent alliances, has disrupted the political landscape in Kenya. The sidelining of the deputy president has created frustration among Kenyans, particularly those from lower-income backgrounds. The government's failure to address the rising cost of living and its excessive borrowing practices has deepened public discontent. Ruto capitalized on this dissatisfaction during his campaign, promising a government that would prioritize the needs of the common people. However, subsequent actions have shown a divergence between promises made and actions taken.

Economic Impact and Crime:

Crime trends taken from Kenya’s National Crime research Centre (2018) show the statistics of crimes within different regions. This is set to increase with more young and vulnerable people being recruited by criminal organisations within different areas of Kenya

The government's proposed heavy taxation measures through the Financial Bill 2023 will significantly escalate the cost of living, rendering it unaffordable for a large portion of the population. This economic strain is expected to lead to business closures and job losses, which, in turn, can contribute to an increase in crime rates. Crimes such as burglaries, robberies, and other offenses are likely to surge if the current economic situation persists.

Unemployment and Security Concerns:

The government's pledge to create a substantial number of jobs annually, particularly for the youth, appears to be unattainable. This raises concerns about a rise in unemployment rates, making the younger population vulnerable to exploitation by criminal organizations such as Al-Shabaab. The potential for increased recruitment along the Kenya-Somalia border is a significant security concern.

Challenges in Law Enforcement:

Kenyan law enforcement agencies are confronted with various challenges, including low salaries and difficulties in meeting daily needs. The heightened cost of living without a commensurate increase in income poses additional difficulties for these officers. In such circumstances, the temptation to engage in corruption becomes more pronounced, creating an opportunity for criminal groups to exploit the collaboration between law enforcement and criminal elements. This may contribute to the proliferation of small arms, counterfeit goods, and human trafficking, posing a significant threat to public safety and security.

Disruptive Opposition:

The opposition's efforts to incite public disobedience and demand a reduction in the cost of living present a further risk factor in Kenya's security landscape. While the government faces complex challenges, including a heavy burden of inherited debt, finding viable solutions to lower the cost of living is a daunting task. Frequent demonstrations and disruptions initiated by the opposition further exacerbate the economic strain and impede progress.

Conclusion:

Political instability and the government's policies have significant implications for safety and security in Kenya. The proposed increase in taxation, coupled with a stagnant economy and a disrupted business environment, may result in an unstable situation. It is imperative for the government to formulate comprehensive strategies to address these challenges and mitigate the deteriorating security conditions. Stakeholders, including residents and visitors, are advised to exercise caution, assume personal responsibility, and prioritise safety and security amidst these uncertain circumstances.

Spearfish Update: Ukraine Recovery Conference Highlights

Last week the FCDO hosted the Ukraine Recovery Conference, the focus was on rebuilding and reconstructing, putting aside discussions on current battles. It was a high-level gathering with participation from the FCDO and senior officials. The event was attended by high-profile guests including Rishi Sunak the Prime Minister, James Cleverley the Foreign Secretary, Volodymyr Zelensky President of Ukraine (online), Ursula von der Leyen the President of the European Commission, Anthony Blinken the US Secretary of State, and Yoshimasa Hayashi the Japanese Foreign Secretary. Amongst those representing the private sector were Richard Branson and Howard Buffet.  However, the conference highlighted the need for greater representation from the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, a crucial matter that must be addressed.

There was an overwhelming feeling that the reconstruction cannot wait until the conflict is over and that rebuilding, which has already begun in some areas, needs to continue. There was a sense that although the UK Government were in support of UK companies starting this process today, the infrastructure and leadership for this pipeline was still in development.

The UK emphasised the importance of Ukraine becoming the "bread basket of the world" and supported expediting the recovery process. Discussions revolved around utilising seized Russian funds and the expectation that Russia would pay reparations for Ukraine's recovery. Promisingly, the government pledged to underpin war risk insurance in the Lloyd's market and provide assistance with local insurance. Additionally, the EU pledged an a further 50 billion to support Ukraine's 2023 budget and contribute to reconstruction efforts.

Ukraine's focus on rebuilding extends the importance and sustainability as a core aim as part of the recovery. However, the priority which needs to be tackled is that of landmines and it will be a gargantuan task to de-mine large areas around critical infrastructure, agricultural land and housing zones.

The conference stressed the significance of regional-level contacts and cooperation alongside state-level efforts. The Ukrainian officials who took part in the conference clearly personified the resilience and effectiveness of the Ukrainian Government.  As a body, they have been able to continue to operate as normal in areas such as maintaining their civil service and administering pensions and vitally, continuing education for their children.

There is also no doubt that when it comes to advancement in technology, again Ukraine leads the way.  This will be vital for a modern and effective reconstruction programme. In the realms of social infrastructure, it's clear that apart from the visible humanitarian aid, there are immense tasks ahead, centred around mending the torn fabric of Ukrainian society. Addressing disrupted education, mental health, separated families, and disrupted communities requires a commitment to transparency and inclusion.

There was a strong sense that Ukraine is determined to rebuild a stronger, modern and more sustainable country.  Spearfish has now established Spearfish Ukraine LLC has already started working in-country to support and facilitate those who are working towards this recovery.

#UkraineRecovery #BuildingBetter #InclusiveReconstruction

Why Prigozhin’s last minute fold might be the best possible outcome for Ukraine

Observers of the war in Ukraine woke on Saturday morning to the news of an armed mutiny by the Wagner PMC. Rostov-on-Don had been seized and the military HQ of the Russian Southern Command captured without a shot being fired. Prigozhin, filmed inside the HQ speaking to Russia’s deputy Defence Minister and deputy Chief of the General Staff surrounded by armed Wagnerites, demanded talks with Shoigu and Gerasimov. When that was denied to Prigozhin, he began his “march for justice” towards Moscow, taking Voronezh and allegedly shooting down up to seven aircraft along the way.

The news was well received in Ukraine and beyond. The irony of “Kyiv in three days” but Rostov in three hours was lost on no-one. While Wagner has been an enemy to Ukraine in Bakhmut and beyond, it was hard for many not to feel a little glee as they moved towards Moscow. For a whole excited day, most people were checking their phones for news of their progress.

And then, just as the heavens opened here last night in Dnipro, it was all over. Prigozhin had struck a deal through Belorussian president Lukashenko to accept exile in Belarus and call off the mutiny. It’s still unclear what the exact terms of the agreement were, nor why Prigozhin climbed down so quickly, but it seems likely he had been counting on more support amongst Russia’s armed forces and the Moscow political elite, which did not precipitate in the event. So much for “25,000 of us ready to die”.

It’s easy to be disappointed. The speed at which it was all over meant Ukraine was not afforded the battlefield advantage for its counter-offensive it would have received in a more drawn-out confrontation. There was also not enough time for Russian political opponents to the war to mobilise, nor for citizens to use a window of opportunity to take to the streets. The potential for this is currently underestimated. 

Yet Putin is weak. He was, of course, already weak, but he is now also exposed. There were little more than eight hours between him publicly declaring that the mutineers would be “punished harshly before the law” and letting Prigozhin fly to Belarus without any charges whatsoever. Of course, what happens to Prigozhin subsequently remains to be seen. But it was an admission by Putin that he doubted his own control over the state to crush the mutiny. The President’s bluff in the morning was called by the afternoon.

Putin’s allies noticed. Uganda’s offer to send military assistance (to the “second army of the world”) will not have been received in Moscow with quite the same enthusiasm in which it was sent.  And that Lukashenko had brokered the deal, a man patronised by Putin to maintain his own power, also speaks to Putin’s failing grasp on control. Those governments still on the fence, such as India and many Middle Eastern states, will be wondering how much longer they can sustain their positions. At some point, they will need to be seen backing the winning side, India and Saudi Arabia in particular. China, of course, will press home any advantage over Putin’s frailty.

Prigozhin also called out the official Russian justification for the war in Ukraine in a video address, that is, that Russia was threatened by a Ukrainian invasion of neo-Nazis and NATO itself. It is unlikely that Progozhin’s video will be seen by the wider Russian audience. Nonetheless, it does detract from the Russian narrative and may well ruffle feathers amongst the Russian oligarchy who already suffer from Western sanctions.

With Prigozhin in Belarus, it will be interesting to see what becomes of the Wagner PMC and its presence in Ukraine. Scenarios range from the conservative (Putin installs a more loyal head) to the more optimistic (the PMC is disbanded altogether). Perhaps most likely is something in between, such as Wagner units being incorporated into the regular Russian armed forces and its African operations allowed to continue. In any case, Wagner’s effectiveness as a fighting force is disrupted to some degree. This no doubt benefits Ukraine on the battlefield. 

That Wagner was not confronted militarily to any meaningful degree in the hours before the Lukashenko deal points to Russian military incompetence, inability or insubordination, or perhaps all three. In Ukraine, the impact of the saga on the regular Russian military will be felt, despite its brevity. First, its ace unit is now compromised operationally and may not rejoin the battlefield. Second, its regular troops in the trenches will have watched an insurgent force capture its headquarters and move over 700km in Russia itself virtually unopposed. Combine that with further scheduled deliveries of Western weapons, including F-16 fighter jets, and it is hard to see Russian morale in anything other than terminal decline.

Yet had Prigozhin continued on his march, Pandora’s box might have been less forgiving. A rapid Ukrainian breakthrough in the midst of civil war in Russia may well have lowered the threshold for Putin’s willingness to use tactical nuclear weapons, or use the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to the same ends. That’s not to mention Wagner capturing nuclear facilities or weapons in Russia itself as a means of blackmail.

A political upheaval in Moscow would most likely have led to a more radical figure in charge of Russia’s Ukrainian operation. Prigozhin himself is counted amongst many others in Moscow who have called for nationwide mobilisation and an all-in approach to the war. The Russian nuclear threshold may well have been found to be much lower than it is today. In the absence of a coherent liberal opposition, the idea of a rapid Russian shift to liberal democracy is optimistic.

And so, while Ukraine gained little of the immediate battlefield advantage many had hoped to see, it has seen Putin’s Russia severely weakened and exposed at home, on the battlefield and abroad. The Russian strategy of enduring sanctions and waiting for Western resolve to fray has been turned on its head: Ukrainian endurance and continued Western unity has cracked the Russian sledgehammer tangibly. The advantages may be longer term than many would have liked, but they are nonetheless there. At the same time, Prigozhin’s fold avoids some of the more serious risks precipitating. The whole affair, while seemingly over in 24 hours, is perhaps the best possible outcome for Ukraine.

Spearfish Trip to Kyiv

 

Read about our Managing Director’s, Dan Hooton’s first trip to Ukraine, Kyiv. Dan was specifically going our to finish the setting up of our latest subsidiary, Spearfish Ukraine LLC. It also coincided with a client mission and thought it was a good time to lend a helping hand.

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Crossing the border

The first challenge was how to get there; since the closure of the air space due to the Russian invasion last February, it meant flying to as close as you can into a neighbouring country, and then choosing bus or rail links into Ukraine. I ended up plumping for a Ryanair flight to Rzeszow in Poland, then taking a train to the border town of Przemysl from where you caught a direct 9 hour train into Kyiv. Having been quizzed hard by the Polish border officials as to whether I was a volunteer fighter or not (might have been something to do with the body armour, medical supplies and satellite phone I was carrying…) I nonetheless managed to end up with all my kit intact, waiting to board the overnight Kyiv express.  This was by now around 11pm, having been on the road since 9am that morning.

After a very slow 2 hour shuffle towards immigration, I was stamped out of Poland, onto the train and I was on my way. A short time later (Przemysl is only 10km from the border), the train stopped for the Ukrainian military immigration team to board.  They worked their way through the carriages as the train continued to race into the night. What struck me from this first contact with their military was how young the men and women in uniform were. With no further questions or bag inspections, another passport stamp and I was officially in Ukraine.

Dawn broke across a vast expanse of green, lush scenery, the vast majority being farming land, very flat but looking extremely fertile. Spring was well underway here, and many trees and bushes were in blossom. Glimpses of large, soviet style factories and warehouses punctuated the rolling landscape, giving way to smallholdings or villages in a predominantly rural setting. The feeling that I had entered a soviet, past time took hold, it felt like a journey back in time to the USSR.

Arriving in Kyiv

I finally arrived in Kyiv around 11am the following morning, a little frazzled after a total journey time of around 24 hours door to door, Kyiv being 2 hours ahead of the UK. I met Charlie, our Country Manager on the platform, and after a short stop for a Ukrainian SIM card, we were in the car and heading to the hotel. Prior to my arrival, Charlie had conducted a number of hotel recces and the main criteria for selection was a comfortable air raid shelter! Most hotels will utilise the deepest section of their underground car parking as a designated area, and set up with chairs, beds, blankets and pillows. I chose a mid-rate international brand, due to location in the city and convenience, but there is a wide range available in Kyiv, depending on budget and preference.

 Charlie was with Ivan, our local driver and we were using our own vehicle for movements around town for the week’s mission with the client.  The boot was kitted out with medical, breakdown and personal protection equipment, just in case. We weren’t planning to leave Kyiv but had good options in case we need to make an inter-city trip, or even a border dash if the circumstances dictated. For communications, we has taken a number of precautions to ensure secure good communications security. Although there was very little likelihood of being targeted as a commercial security team, we weren’t taking any chances. We had radio back-ups for short distance comms should the phone network go down. We had recced the client locations and were all set for their arrival later that day.

 Journey Management in Ukraine

The clients duly arrived, via a slightly longer Warsaw, Lyiv, Kyiv route on a sleeper carriage, but like me were nonetheless excited to finally be here after months of build-up and anticipation. The decision to travel for this client was quite complex. They were extremely used to travelling to other risky environments across Africa and Asia. However, they were more used to dealing with post-conflict risks, such as bad road conditions, kidnap and crime, civil unrest and the like. Kyiv presented none of these items, but the risk of air strikes loomed large in their (and our) consciousness, one that was difficult to quantify and rate. The question we kept asking ourselves was, is this a reasonable position to place the client into and were the travellers happy to commit? Was the outcome of the mission worth taking the risk for? In the end, we developed a criteria of tracking and assessing the quantity and impact of airstrikes, and setting a level of activity, below which we would all be happy for the mission to go ahead. This duly came to pass and the mission was go.

The format for the week was a typical capital city visit, early starts, meetings during the day, then a dinner somewhere local at night. We were having an initial briefing, combined with dinner in the hotel and were discussing air raids and how to handle them.  Others tended to wait for signs of escalation (such as air defences being triggered, reporting of missiles in the area on Telegram channels etc). We had agreed that due to the current level of activity, we would all head to the shelter as soon as a siren sounded.  We made sure everyone had the Ukrainian Alerting app on their phones, which emitted a very loud siren noise as soon as the national system was triggered. It also has country map, and you could see which areas were alerting, and how widespread the attack might be.

Of course, as soon as we had discussed this, the phones duly burst into chorus as an alert for Kyiv was triggered. Combined with the sirens on the buildings and the hotel tannoys, you were left in no doubt this was an air raid and we trooped into the basement. Rather annoyingly our meals were just about to arrive but the waiter promised to take care of this for us. A quick update to the UK team to advise them of our actions and we settled down in the shelter. The hotel has set out tables and chairs and there was a screened off area with camp beds for those longer stays we were no doubt going to encounter. Just as we started to take bets on how long we would be down there, the all clear was sounded and we headed back to the restaurant.

One thing you quickly learned about Kyiv, the siren system was extremely slick and well managed, but as soon as it was over, people got straight back to what they were doing with little delay. With sometimes three or four alerts per day, the sirens had become part of the daily routine. There was no panic or concern, just a simple grudging acknowledgment that this was now a fact of life for most Ukrainians. We got back to our tables and the waiter was as good as his word, dinner was indeed waiting for us, freshly prepared from the kitchen. I left Charlie and the clients in their slightly higher end, smarter hotel and took a short walk through the streets to my hotel.

Nightly Air Raids

Before I bedded down for the night, I prepared my grab bag. It had phone, passport, powerpack, water, torch and laptop, all my essentials within easy reach in case I had a rude awakening in the small hours. I also put some clothes within easy reach of the bed. This might all sound incredibly obvious, but when your mind is fogged at 2am in the morning, coupled with a bit of adrenalin from the thought of a Kinjal hypersonic missile strike coming in through the window, it is better to make things as simple as possible for yourself. I also studied the floorplan of the hotel on the back of my door and felt confident I could find both the lift and the stairs in the event of an emergency.

Off I drifted until – just after 2am, off went the siren. I woke with a jolt and hurriedly dressed and headed to the shelter. I was in luck, I was the first one there, so managed to find a comfortable corner on a sofa with a blanket. I set up comms with Charlie and the team (no cell coverage that deep but Wi-Fi was working) and we checked in with the UK team and advised all safe in the shelters. I checked the alert map on the app and all areas of Ukraine were red, this meant it wasn’t yet clear where the attack vector was coming from, and what the exact target was. After around 15 minutes, I heard and felt a deep rumbling, like rolling thunder – either launches from the air defence systems, or explosions from the incoming missiles! I hadn’t expected to actually hear and feel them, and I think this was surprising to most of us there. The shelter until this point was fairly lightly populated but this latest escalation brought a new influx of guests, stumbling in sheepishly with more than a few worried looks on their faces. I tried not to look too smug on my sofa but I felt you had to take the sirens seriously and this was proof of it.

More explosions were heard, around five or six in a fifteen minute period and then silence. Charlie and I were both checking various social media channels, and some video footage seemed to indicate a heavy attack from multiple directions, with many patriot missile launches. The question of how many missiles did each battery have had begun to form in my mind but I pushed it to the back of my thoughts. Surely I wouldn’t be caught out by a decisive change in attack strategy by the Russians on my first night in town?!

As time passed from that first wave there were no more explosions, and it seemed that the attack might be over; I checked the alerting app for an update. After around 1 hr and 45 mins another siren broke the silence saying the attack was over and signed off what a humorous ‘may the force be with you’. A nice touch from a slick system that had been refined over the last year and a bit of heavy use. One that I was very grateful for, not to mention a new found awe for the missile defence systems. Not a single missile had struck home and only minor damage from debris was reported.

 Back to bed, now around just after 4am, the birdsong lulled me towards a troubled sleep, as I went over the last few hours and how this brought home the realities of the situation here, and what people here have been living with over the last 16 months. I didn’t have too long to pontificate, as once again the siren wailed at around 4.25am. I leapt out of bed to return to the shelter, this time modestly choosing a chair rather than the prized sofa and watched as many more people came straight down this time. We all hunkered down for the third time that night, but no more explosions or sounds were heard.  Once more I found myself wondering, just exactly how many missiles does the air defence systems have? Finally, we got the all clear at just before 6am, and I emerged blinking into the early morning light.

 

During the Day

Charlie and I put together a sitrep for the client and took stock of the attack overnight. This had been the largest air attack of the war to date, one designed to overwhelm and destroy the Patriot missile systems that did such a magnificent job. The Russians has launched six of the much-hyped Kinzhal hypersonic missiles at the capital, supposedly impossible to defend against, as well as nine Kalibr cruise missiles and three Iskandr missiles. A total of eighteen missiles had been downed successfully, a fantastic result for the Ukrainian Military and supporting NATO forces. Although a huge success, we turned our thoughts as to what this might mean for the client mission. We took the view that last night’s alert, whilst considerable in scope and complexity was successfully mitigated by the sirens, the use of the shelter and the effectiveness of the missile defence systems.

Our advice was that with continued use of these measures, as well as limiting our foot movement to within 500 metres of the hotel when not in the vehicle would keep the risk within limits, but bottom line, it was for the clients to decide if they were comfortable staying on. We discussed this over breakfast and took the decision to go on with the mission. The UK team were also consulted and agreed, so we resumed with our plans. What we also had to take into account was not just our view here on the ground, but the perception those out of country would have on the risk, and how that might differ. In short, we had to communicate the risk and mitigation well enough for all to be happy from both perspectives.

The rest of the week fell into a routine of normal life by day, and then at least one, sometimes two or three alerts by night, necessitating more time in the shelter. I identified little idiosyncrasies of my fellow shelter dwellers, the chap who turned up with a roll mat and would properly bed down for the night once there; the ‘85 minuters’, like spectators at a football match, some people would have the knack of leaving the shelters just before the end of the alerts to beat the rush at the lifts. Whilst it became more of a routine and part and parcel of Kyiv life, what was evident of the debilitating nature of being disturbed every night and how tired it then was to resume a normal working day. By the end of the week, we were all tired and if staying longer, it is likely that we would have agreed different criteria for occupying the shelters.

Lessons Learnt

We closed out the week by saying goodbye to the clients as they took the train home on Thursday night, typically in the midst of a siren alert, but all safely boarded and then crossed back into Poland the next day. I reflected on what we did for them, it wasn’t purely security but more of a facilitation task. We had provided a driver, vehicle, body armour and medical kit, primary and back up communications. Charlie had acted as a local facilitator and made sure they got to each meeting quickly and without getting lost. If there had been a siren when away from the hotel his job was to get them to the nearest shelter without delay. Could they have done all of this themselves? Probably yes but with a lot of time and effort, not to mention a considerable amount of worry of dealing with the unknown.

Perhaps the last word should come down to insurance. The client had a lot of trouble getting effective cover for the trip. We introduced them to our own broker who was able to get them a policy, helped in part by the fact they were using us, and as a known quantity to the underwriter, it helped establish not only cover but a reasonable premium.

From a personal perspective the trip shed light on the resilience of the Ukrainian people and the measures taken to navigate challenging circumstances. I look forward to establishing Spearfish Ukraine and spending more time in this complex beautiful country.  

Nigeria Presidential Inauguration 29th May 2023 - Security Report

Overview

The inauguration of the president-elect, Bola Ahmed Tinubu will take place in Abuja on 29th May at Eagle Square. The event has been scheduled to hold as the election tribunal is ongoing.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

This event will swear in the president-elect into office and usher out the current administration led by the current president of the country, President Muhammadu Buhari. There are a number of events leading up to the inauguration, some of which will involve traffic restrictions within the Central Business District. Various event-related road closures are likely to occur over the last three days before the inauguration.

Chairman of the Presidential Transition Council (PTC), Boss Mustapha had stated that the ongoing litigation of the presidential election tribunal would not affect the swearing-in of the president-elect and the vice-president-elect. The inauguration of President-Elect, Bola Tinubu and Vice President-Elect, Kashim Shettima on May 29 remains sacrosanct and will impact social and economic activities on the day.

There is a likelihood of potential protest by aggrieved political groups  There will be an increased presence of security operatives, DSS, the Nigeria Army, the Nigerian Police Force, and all other arms of the Nigerian Security forces.

ADVICE:

  • Make alternative movement plans pre, during, and after the event as there will be movement restrictions and traffic gridlock.

  • Dust and mock test all security, emergency, crisis, and incident response plans in other to respond should in case.

  • Keep communication active with all security point of contacts etc.


BE AWARE:

  • There is an influx of personalities already in the FCT. The city has become rowdier with the increased presence of dignitaries

  • There will be road closures in the vicinity of Eagle Square for a number of days in advance of the inauguration event.

  • The event-related roads will be closed in advance of the inauguration linked to geographically specific celebration activities.

  • Lack of availability of hotel accommodation in advance of the inauguration and possibly for some weeks after the event.

UK Procurement Bill – how it will affect small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). 

As a UK supplier to the UK Government, we at Spearfish are interested in the Procurement Bill that is currently at the report stage for ourselves and our clients.

Amongst its amendments, this bill aims to make changes to the tender process for SMEs. Last week, we were invited to attend a British Expertise International (BEI) event that focused on this very topic and was attended by the UK International Development sector. As the bill proceeds through the final stages of Parliament, we will be watching closely to see how it develops and how it will impact the procurement process for SMEs. 

Overview  

The Procurement Bill proposes reforms to the UK's public procurement system, with the aim of improving value for money, transparency, and integrity. Currently, one in every three pounds of public money, around £300 billion a year, is spent on public procurement. The Bill will create a simpler, more flexible, and commercial system that meets the country's needs while complying with international obligations. It will consolidate the over 350 different procurement regulations into a single regime, creating one rule book for everyone to use. The Bill will create a digital platform for suppliers to register their details once for use in any bids, and a central online transparency platform to allow suppliers to see all opportunities in one place, accelerating spending with SMEs. The theme of transparency runs throughout the Bill, and it aims to deliver world-leading standards of transparency in public procurement. 

SME’s 

It seeks to achieve this by removing outdated rules and regulations inherited from the EU, creating a new central platform to show future work in each area, reducing unnecessary insurance costs, strengthening prompt payment, and introducing a Competitive Flexible procedure that allows contractors to design more innovation into the process, benefiting smaller tech startups. Additionally, the Bill will benefit SMEs by creating greater visibility of upcoming work, allowing them more time to gear up for bidding, and creating a single website to register on, rather than multiple time-consuming systems. It will also no longer be a necessity to have the relevant insurance to be in place before the award of a contract and will increase the threshold for publishing KPI data to contracts valued at £5 million.  

MEAT or MAT Model 

The Procurement Bill proposes to move away from the Most Economically Advantageous Tender (MEAT) model towards the Most Advantageous Tender (MAT) model. While MEAT prioritises the lowest price, MAT considers a range of factors beyond just price to determine the most advantageous tender. These factors may include social, environmental, and qualitative considerations, such as the supplier's ability to meet the needs of the public body and deliver long-term value for money. The MAT model aims to create a more level playing field for SMEs that may not be able to compete on price alone but can offer other advantages, such as innovative solutions or a greater focus on sustainability. Therefore, while the Procurement Bill may move away from a purely commercial emphasis, it aims to create a fairer and more competitive procurement system that considers a broader range of factors beyond just price. 

Conclusion 

The Procurement Bill proposes significant reforms to the UK's public procurement system, with a focus on improving value for money, transparency, and integrity. The changes include moving towards a MAT model, consolidating regulations into a single regime, creating digital platforms for suppliers, and increasing opportunities for SMEs. The MAT model aims to create a more level playing field for SMEs by considering a broader range of factors beyond just price when awarding contracts. Overall, the Procurement Bill seeks to modernise and simplify the procurement process, while promoting fairness, competition, and innovation.  Will this really happen, the jury is still out but there is hope it will be. 

Nigerian Post Election - Post Election Security Update

Figure 1: Nigeria Election Result 2023 – Source BBC website.

Following the Nigerian presidential election held on Saturday 25th February 2023, Peter Obi (Labour Party) and Atiku Abubakar (People’s Democratic Party) will challenge in court the result that saw Bola Tinubu of the ruling APC party declared the presidential winner with 37% of the vote.

All election challenges must be filed with the court within 21 days of the announcement of the results or they will not be considered. This deadline is 31 March. A written result from the tribunal is expected 180 days after the suit is filed. 

It is highly unlikely that the tribunal will reach a decision before 29 May - when Mr Tinubu is due to be sworn in as president.

It is thought that the legal challenges will hinge on the use of electronic means to capture voting. An act that was signed last year to guide the conduct of the 2023 elections. It mandated INEC to publish guidelines for the elections.   

These guidelines stated that its officials would:

·       Electronically transmit or transfer the result of the Polling Unit directly to the collation system.

·       Use the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) to upload a scanned copy of the EC8A (result sheet) to the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV)

Even if the tribunal ordered a rerun or declared any of his opponents the winner of the election, such an outcome is most likely to be counter-challenged at the Supreme Court.

Election Numbers

The turnout to the elections was just 27% and Mr Tinubu received 8.8 million ballots - less than 10% of the 93,469,008 registered voters. According to the figures from INEC, the total number of eligible voters rose by 9,464,924 or 11.3 per cent from the 84,004,084 recorded in the 2019 general elections to 93,469,008 eligible voters in 2023. At just 25.7 per cent, the elections have the lowest recorded turnout of any election since Nigeria returned to democracy; that’s about 3 out of 10 people who registered for the elections participated. Nigeria spent well over N300 billion naira, making it the most expensive election in Nigerian history.  Voter apathy is not thought to have been as much of a factor as problems on voting day.

Figure 2: Declining Voter Turnout 2023 Election – source INEC

Figure 3: Voter Turnout 2023 Election – Businessday.ng

Possible Reasons of Voter Apathy

·       Access to voting sites.

·       Uncounted votes due to violence, corruption

·       Lack of confidence in election process

·       No voters card.

·       General lack of interest.

Election Day

Some polling units did not start until 13:00, only one-and-a-half hours before polls were due to close. Despite the extension of voting, many were still unable to vote before darkness fell and poll sites closed.  At some voting centres in opposition strongholds, voting did not take place at all and there were also cases of ballot-box snatching, violence and voter intimidation in known opposition states in the south.

Election monitoring group Yiaga Africa, said only 10% of polling units in the south-east and 29% in the south had started accreditation and voting by 09:30 local time on Saturday - an hour after polls opened. However, some 63% of polling units in the south-west and 42% of polling units in the north-west (known APC strongholds) had started voting at that time.

International observer missions from the NDI-IRI and the EU described the process as lacking transparency.

Conclusion

The opposition parties are expected to continue to conduct peaceful protest at INEC in parallel with legal submissions. With the Governorship elections due on Saturday 11th March, there is potential for protests to escalate into violence, especially if security forces try to restrict protest events. With the Governorship and State House of Assembly elections coming up in the next few days, further disruption and possible disorder should be anticipated.

A journey through Ukraine Part III

Back in December Spearfish’s Ukrainian country specialist went back to Ukraine for the first time since the war began in February. Read how he navigated his way from across the Polish boarder to Lviv, Kyiv and then Dnipro.





Dnipro

The situation in Dnipro is clearly more tense than that of Kyiv and Lviv. The city acts as a hub for many military units heading further east to the front line, and thus soldiers (mostly unarmed) are a common sight on the streets, particularly around the train and bus stations. A number of sites in the city centre have been visibly hit by Russian missiles, such as the Ukrainian Security Service building. Government buildings are more heavily guarded by law enforcement and some adjoining roads have had access restricted. Nonetheless, the streets are still busy with people, and many aid organisations (both domestic and international) and journalists have situated themselves in Dnipro for easier access to the Donbas. 

Power cuts, both scheduled and unscheduled, are now a common occurrence in Dnipro. Scheduled power cuts rotate around different districts of the city every 4-8 hours. However, some people complained that even this week they have been without electricity and water for 4 days straight. Street lighting and traffic lights are often without power, leaving cars and pedestrians in the dark at night and increasing the risk of traffic collisions at crossroads, which are now common. Thus is it advisable to wear reflective clothing and have a head torch to hand when on foot after dark. Many locals avoid using lifts so as to avoid potentially becoming stuck for hours. Some businesses are lucky enough to have backup power, such as generators, but many are forced to temporarily close. During power outages, some bars and restaurants close their doors, while some try to work by candle light. 

 The curfew in Dnipro city is enforced between 00:00-05:00. In the rest of the region outside the city it starts at 23:00. Street crime has not been reported by locals to have increased, and martial law brings with it an increased police and military presence. That being said, it is noticeable that some people and businesses have heightened their awareness vis-a-vis crime.

 Dnipro tends to have more air raid sirens than Kyiv and Lviv, although they are still generally ignored. Unlike some previous months, the audible street siren will sound for three minutes and then stop for the remainder of the alert (potentially hours), in order to avoid disturbing the population. People rely mainly on mobile apps for alerts of air raid sirens. The locals’ biggest fear is not the danger from the strikes themselves, but the impact they will have on heating and electricity.

Dnipro Train Station

 Russian remains the most common spoken language in Dnipro, although as in Kyiv and Lviv the written language (road signs, advertisements, general information) is almost exclusively in Ukrainian. The level of English is, in general, slightly poorer than in Lviv and Kyiv, even in some hotels. The link between language and politics is controversial: some of the most ardent Ukrainian patriots are Russian-speakers. However, there is in Dnipro an increased anxiety about fifth columnists sharing information with the Russian military. As such, one should be extremely careful when taking photos around the city, particularly near any government buildings. 

 Dnipro clearly remains a functional city, even if it has changed somewhat since February. Law and order remains unchallenged and as a result businesses continue to adapt and endure. While power cuts remain a challenge, Dnipro and “Dnipraniye” (local residents) are demonstrating their resilience while supporting the efforts further east.

How can Spearfish support you?

If your organisation is looking to operate or have a trip planned in Ukraine Spearfish can support you duty of care needs.